Wednesday, 28 January 2009
Can Israel negotiate with Hamas?
If I may summarize:
1) Andrew Higgins in the Jan. 24 issue of The Wall Street Journal describes Hamas as Israel’s creation and that just because they have a mission statement that calls for the eradication of Israel, it should not be taken as a political problem to peace.
2) Efraim Halevy, a former head of the Mossad, doubts that Al-Fatah the Palestinian Authority's leaders who “sat back and did nothing at all, silently applauding Israel’s campaign against their bitter Palestinian political and ideological foes" can hope to gain power in Gaza again.
3) Halevy also says “... the prospect of weaning Hamas from the hands of President Ahmadinejad is worth a try.” What else would Israel, the United States and Egypt have to lose by examining the a peace accord.
So all of these positions make a Peace Accord the most likely outcome?
I don't buy it -at least not in my lifetime.
Monday, 29 December 2008
Wednesday, 10 December 2008
Liberals Flip-Flop on "Peek-a-boo" Leader
If the Menage a Trois/Coalition does not defeat the Conservative Government on January 27, then we will not have to suffer Jacques PARIZEAU, Ed BROADBENT, and Elizabeth MAY in the Senate (and possibly Maude BARLOW and Judy REBICK). That is a relief.
[Update: 2008Dec24 HARPER appoints 18 new Conservative Senators! My only disappointment is Deb GREY is not among them.]
Kudos & Brickats for Liberal "Courage"?
Following the denouement of DION, the pundits and political commentators are having a field day - here are some of my favourites:
National Post - Night of the Living Dion by Matt GURNEY, A slander on Canadian men by Barabara KAY, Liberals embrace democracy, then abandon it all in one breath by Lorne GUNTER, Bob Rae and the swirling cesspool of Liberal self-interest by Don MARTIN and this Editorial piece. Here is Full Pundit's survey.
Others have mentioned the "Cave-cam" video that sealed his fate. M. DION will be missed the most by the Conservative Party, who feasted on his "easy pickins".
As to Mr. Micheal IGNATIEFF, I have summarized a profile of him before. Here is a George JONAS's take on IGNATIEFF entitled "Ignatieff 's misguided dream" an issue JONAS knows well - having fled Hungary as a teenager in 1958. His family was to follow after him to Canada but didn't. Kelly MCPARLAND weighs in as well.
As to the impact of the "Stimulus Budget" on Jan 27, who knows. Jacquie THORPE already notes we are awash in stimulus. Yesterday's (Dec 9, 2008) interest rate cut of 3/4% was an aggressive signal of it's new policy stance as it is clear that we are now in a recession - something that the BOC Governor Mark CARNEY was coy to admit only 2 weeks ago. This puts the Bank of Canada's (BOC) Overnight lending rate at 1.5% - the lowest since July 1958 when John DIEFENBAKER was Prime Minister.
Monday, 8 December 2008
Mario DUMONT - DOA
It was unfortunate that federal politics probably pushed the Parti Quebecois vote up in the last two weeks. The next election may be the the Federal one. A resurgence of the PQ may hinder the BQ presence in Ottawa as there is a line of thought that suggests voters like to have "dynamic tension" in the political balance between provincial and federal parties. This would be good for the federal Conservatives.
Thursday, 4 December 2008
Crisis? What Crisis.
Our nascent political drama hit a speed-bump this morning as Governor-General (GG) Michaelle JEAN agreed to prorogue Parliament until Jan 26 2009 so the Conservatives will not have to face an immediate non-confidence motion in the House from the newly formed opposition Coalition of Liberals, NDP and Bloc Quebecois. By agreeing to this break, the GG is allowing the Conservative Government the time to properly prepare their Budget response to the Global Economic Meltdown.The opposition rebellion was ignited when the Conservatives embedded what was seen as a gratuitous insult to the Opposition on an uncontroversial Confidence motion following the Dec 2 Fiscal Update. This clause would have revoked the existing $2 per voter Election grant to Political Parties. Without this funding, the Liberals, NDP and BQ would be technically bankrupt as they rely heavily on those funds to run their election campaigns. The Conservatives are philosophically opposed to the idea, but they also have the luxury of strong financial support from party members1. It was a serious strategic error for Mr. HARPER not to have anticipated the oppositions outcry from such a provocative move.
Once opposition gelled HARPER quickly backed off and removed the offending clause. (Personally I think he might have indicated a less radical solution like phasing out funding over 2 years or perhaps adding a formula where the government would equally match personal contributions.) However the Opposition parties were not so easily placated. Their outrage transmuted into dissatisfaction with the Fiscal Update and defeating it became the object of their dissent. The Liberals charged that the Conservatives "lack of crisis measures" was tantamount to macro-economic negligence and mis-management. The fact that the Conservatives were rushing to bring out such a "Stimulus Budget" after the Xmas Break on Jan 27, 2009 was impatiently brushed aside as "too little, too late". Faced with the realization that bringing down the Government on a Non-Confidence motion would plunge the country into another election - which would be electoral suicide for whomever initiated it - the Opposition Parties accepted that they would have to mobilize the Coalition to be allowed to Govern.
Mr. HARPER's fatal error became the pretext for the Opposition Parties to advance to a Governing Coalition, although perhaps a little prematurely. A remaining challenge for the Coalition is to transition from their lame duck leader, M. Stephane DION to a new Leader to be selected in the May 2009 Leadership Race. It is unlikely that the GG would appoint a Governing Coalition led by an outgoing, lame-duck leader and a yet-to-be-determined Leader. But certainly, she would prefer that to another General Election.
We know now that the Coalition (the Liberals 77 seats, NDP 37 seats and BQ 49 seats = 163 vs Conservatives 143) has been in the works for some time. Perhaps with indecent haste the 3 Opposition Parties all signed the formal terms of the Coalition Agreement (which governs allocation of cabinet positions, voting rules, dispute resolution procedures etc.) The Coalition has agreed to maintain unity for at least 2 years before triggering another Election.
For our financial markets, this 7 week break from political theater will be a blessing as the news in that time will be unremittingly depressing. Yet domestically, our banking system is probably the most sound in the world right now. Our real problem will be to survive the drop in demand for many of our commodities at once, and the severe depression griping our main trade partner the USA.
Therefore, if the Coalition can hold together until a new Liberal Leader is selected - they may get the chance to govern.
Here are videos of both HARPER's Address and DION's response.
[Update: 2008DEC08 Stephane DION has stepped down as Liberal Leader and now Liberals must rapidly select a new leader before January 26 when Parliament reconvenes and the Conservative government "Stimulus Budget" is expected. Without a Liberal Leader the "Coalition" will not be given the chance to form a government after a non-confidence motion. I predict some Liberals would rather cross the floor to join the Conservatives or become Independents than join such a "Menage a Trois" with the BQ or NDP. Endgame approaches.]
Footnotes:
1) It was expected that the next allocation of Party Financing would total $30 million to be split between the various parties according the their share of popular vote. Liberals $10 million, Conservatives $7.7, NDP $4.9, BQ $2.6 and Greens $1.8.
2) In the Dec 2006 Liberal Leadership Race, these were the Candidate Expenditures.
| Name | $Total | %Donors | Rank |
| BENNETT, Carol | $ 255,000 | 69% | 2 |
| VOLPE, Joe | $ 768,000 | 51% | 5 |
| RAE, Bob | $3,000,000 | 72% | 1 |
| KENNEDY, Gerrard | $1,425,000 | 48% | 7 |
| IGNATIEFF, Micheal | $2,316,000 | 65% | 4 |
| FRY, Hedy | $ 195,000 | 14% | 11 |
| HALL-FINDLEY, Martha | $ 423,000 | 38% | 8 |
| DRYDEN, Ken | $ 650,000 | 32% | 9 |
| DION, Stephane | $1,882,000 | 50% | 6 |
| BRISON, Scott | $ 593,0000 | 67% | 3 |
| BEVILAQUA, Mario | $ 700,0000 | 21% | 10 |
Sunday, 9 November 2008
NO, We can't

Now that the Coronation is over OBAMA will have to start lowering expectations. So, the new cry will become "No, we can't" and then it will slowly dawn on Americans that the OBAMA rhetoric was merely an illusion. Certainly, he will be able to deflect this charge as the legacy of damage left over from the previous administration, but that won't last more than 4 years. Sooner or later the miracle of OBAMA shall wilt.
Saturday, 8 November 2008
Elections over, pretending done
But also since I have noticed that the Sun chain articles appear not to last as long as others, I decided to repeat the whole transcript.
Good, election season is over. Now we can all quit pretending that presidents and prime ministers can wave a wand and solve everyone's problems.That is worth keeping.I know that this is alarming news and I apologize for not mentioning this before the election campaigns were over.
It's just that mentioning it to certain people during the campaign would have been like explaining to children that Santa has perished in a horrible reindeer accident and there won't be gifts this year. But the time has come to tell the truth, and the truth is this: Leading scientists have now proven that 97% of the problems faced by you and me are best addressed by you and me.
I wish to make two points before some people start to protest these new scientific findings.
First, this new study has been confirmed by the experience of all of human history.
Second, I have used the words "scientist" and "scientific" so it's really not appropriate for ordinary non-scientific people to question what science has uncovered.
This new information is especially relevant today as people look at their stock portfolio and ask these two questions: Where can I find the Kraft Dinner, and what is the government going to do to fix this?
The answers to these important questions are that the Kraft Dinner is on aisle five, and that saving money by buying Kraft Dinner is a much better solution to our problems than politicians who use the crisis to try and justify massively expanding the government.
Simple, right?
It's not complicated. The more politicians spend, the less taxpayers get to save. I should know. I am a recovering politician.
There is lots of blame to go around for the current economic turmoil. Naive sub-prime borrowers must bear some guilt, and the U.S. banks and mortgage companies who suckered them in are pond scum. All of that easy credit was promoted, aided and abetted by cheerleading U.S. legislators. Government regulators failed at their one and only job, which is to regulate.
Then all of those sub-prime mortgages, bad credit card debt and shaky car loans were tied together, dabbed with perfume and tarted up with the name Asset Backed Commercial Paper, a hilarious moniker for an investment that is essentially asset free.
Some investment advisers who had never before seen ABCP pushed at it with the toe of their shoe and poked at it with sticks, and upon performing this rigorous analysis determined that it was right for their clients. Some investors seemed to think that a magical new investment had been created that carried little or no risk while offering big returns.
UNICORNS
But as common sense will confirm no risk, big reward schemes are like unicorns, and centaurs and the Kelowna Accord. They are all fun to think about, but no one has ever seen them.
The lesson in all of this is not that we should expect Stephen Harper or Barack Obama to ride to our rescue. The lesson is that we need to be more responsible for our own outcomes. We need to be prudently skeptical about hucksters of all kinds whether they start their pitch with, "Invest in this and you can't lose" or, "If elected I will". The path to success isn't complicated or glamorous. It's called work, save, and know what you're investing in. Good luck with it. See you on aisle five.
Thursday, 6 November 2008
The New President + "Yes We Can" Speech
I was very impressed with the whole campaign.McCain did great and he delivered a most moving concession speech, generous in spirit and thought. Palin was an inspired choice and I am thrilled that she is now on the national stage. I am very proud of both of them. President-elect Obama's speech was also inspirational. Martin Luther KING Jr is also smiling down upon us, certainly his words were echoing from the podium in Illinois.
Popular Voting 52% vs 48% - was not bad and far from the route that was predicted but of course the Electoral College count was pretty close to expected.
Saturday, 1 November 2008
Anti-Americanism didn’t begin with George Bush and it won’t end with an Obama presidency
Consider his comments:
I first noticed anti-Americanism abroad as a teen from Canada living in Paris in 1967 — Americans were commonly held in contempt in the 5th Republic of Charles De Gaulle (1958-69), who glorified France by slurring the U.S., and who explicitly sought to undermine U.S. stature in the world. As was popular among French intellectuals, De Gaulle decried America’s “arrogance of power” and its soulless materialism.This French attitude demonstrates their parochial attitude of an empire they never really had.
With the general exception of the then-Communist countries, the sentiment — at least among the reform-minded people I tended to associate with — was overwhelmingly anti-American. The bitter criticisms of the U.S. often confused me. Anil Agarwal, a prominent environmentalist (now-deceased) from India for whom I had the greatest respect, decried the “Coca Cola-ization” of the Third World (this was circa 1980 — today we would call this “globalization”).It is called "envy". It is one of the vices and shows the pettiness of so many politicians who can not even dream of the freedoms of America.
But why blame Coca Cola or America? Anil never did answer in a way I found satisfying, other than expressing a discomfort that the U.S. had become too powerful, that its corporations’ reach had become too extensive, that the U.S. presence had gone too far.
The most enduring of the stereotypes that denigrate the U.S. is that of the Ugly American, a best-selling book that came out in 1958, and then became a Marlon Brando movie. This American is loud and tasteless, insensitive to other cultures. A boor, and not one in uniform, the ugly American came to represent the American tourist above all, but also corporate big-wigs and stay-at-home slobs.Very true - and the closing comment by Solomon is also frustrating.
Finally, America is loathed because its brand of free-market capitalism remains ascendant, having outperformed European-style socialism and utterly defeated Communism, ideologies that attract many if not most of the world’s intellectuals. More than two centuries since its founding, the U.S. shows no sign of losing either its economic or military supremacy.
America will be America after Nov 4. Anti-Americanism is safe.
Thursday, 16 October 2008
Cleanup after the Election
During this campaign I feel that partisan self-interest has become endemic in the media. The Leaders Debate was a perfect example - Steve PAIKIN seemed to forget that he was the Moderator and practically assisted holding back HARPER so the others could gang tackle. I don't recall him pointing out inconsistencies in Jack LAYTON's comments or taking DION to task on any issue. Such double-standard performances were most galling when given by the CBC - should not a public broadcaster show some balance rather than being the cheer-leaders for the left?
Despite my opposition to the Election Canada "gag laws" harming individuals and interest groups ability to engage in public debate and the exemption given the media should be undone. Similar to the financial commentators who are expected to disclose any financial conflicts of interests by disclosing their personal holdings, I propose all political media commentators disclose any political party affiliations, political contracts and how they voted on the last election in order that readers can gauge their political bias. This would provide a "quid pro quo" balance to the media's free ride.
Similarly, I was dismayed at Edmonton-Strathcona's M.P Elect Linda DUNCAN smug assurances that she had won over incumbent Rahim JAFFER . She had a fair lead but given the number of difficulties over Voter ID, some self-control is in order. Let's see how this "brou-ha-ha" ends.
Wednesday, 15 October 2008
Election Over - No Change
Unfortunately, the Conservatives could not mount an effective campaign against an ineffective opposition. It was a gift - and we blew it. Talk about snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
While there is was a small advantage gained in Conservative seats (+16) 1 leading to a minor victory in the house, there was significant changes to the players. Many old hands were ejected and new - stronger - blood transfused across all party spectra. With the firing of Liberal Leader Stephane DION likely, there will be another hiatus until the Liberals regroup. This will make the dynamics of governing quite interesting over the next 1-2 years.
I contend that Leaders Debate was critical to Harper's failure to define what "Conservatives Stood For" - he was constantly on the defensive and let LAYTON, DUCEPPE (and even DION) brand him as un-NDP, un-Quebecois/BQ and un-Liberal. That he could not mount a spirited defense was costly. Furthermore until the BQ is broken no party can successfully govern.
Nonetheless, I do not see that a Minority Conservative Government will actually harm anyone. "Less is More" is possibility the best prescription right now. Apparently everyone is expected to report for work ASAP. Throne speech before Remembrance Day and Xmas Recess on Dec 12.
Here were the results of the UBC Election Market.
It is worth noting that Alberta voter turnout was the lowest ever at 52.9% (this is the percentage voted of Total Registered Voters - itself a fraction of total population.) Doubtless because of the large-scale Conservative landslide anticipated in the province, other party supporters (Liberals, NDP) did not bother to show. Preliminary2 national turn-out of 59.1% was also lower - as anticipated - than the 2004 Election (60.9%) and the uptick in 2006 (64.7%).
Indeed "voter apathy" was a problem in my own riding of Edmonton-Strathcona. However it was in the other direction. Voter turnout - a healthy 65.4% - was from the wrong side. It would appear that many disaffected and/or uninspired Liberals switched their votes to the ever-persistent NDP Candidate, Linda DUNCAN and too many "tethered conservatives" abstained on Election Day narrowly denying incumbent Conservative Rahim JAFFER a victory.
A final issue that has arisen in post-election chatter is the newly amended Elections Canada Act. Firstly, many have complained that the stringent "Voter ID" rules damaged access to the ballot boxes and in some situation were incorrectly enforced - leading to eligible voters being turned away. Still others found the delays due to incorrect voter names and address information unconscionable and that many were discouraged from voting as a result. Secondly, there has been speculation that the "Third Party Lobbying" rules could be broken when various Premiers rail against Federal Political Parties - as Ontario's Dalton McGINTY and Newfoundland's Premier Danny WILLIAMS did during the campaign. I can only hope that Elections Canada gags him. Of course, those issues should be weighted with the thoughts expressed by Brian KALT, that we are still better served than U.S voters.
[Addendum: Oct 16 National Post "Censored by Elections Canada" Editorial again brings up the staggered voter hours - that has been endlessly debated in the past - as a cause for concern. I disagree, it is a minor issue compared to the gag law and other election law issues as mentioned above. See also ABC News "Laws disenfranchised 1 million indigenious Canadians" which highlight the Voter ID issue, but overstates for a headline. ]
Footnotes:
1) 2008 Sept 10 Dissolution of 39th Parliament, the Consevatives held 127, Liberal 95, BQ 48, NDP 30 and Independents 4 (including 1 Green) - there were 4 Byelections pending that were expected to go to 1 Liberal, 1 BQ and 1 NDP (and 1 a tossup between Conservative/Liberals) .
2) www.elections.ca indicate voters of 13.833/23.401 million eligible.
[I note the uusual CPC candidate of Sharon SMITH in Skeena-Bulkey Valley, BC (ED#59025) who came in 2nd by 4,500 votes (7.5% of registered voters) - losing to NDP Nathan CULLEN. Sharon was the infamous "nude" ex-mayor of Houston BC.] (Storey here)
Friday, 3 October 2008
Fight Nite!
"Taliban" Jack LAYTON
and
Stephane "The Professor" DION
and
Gilles "Hollywood" DUCEPPE
and
Elizabeth "Just glad to be here" MAY.
Starring
vs.
Joe "VAWA" BIDEN
I thought Harper did well just to survive the unrelenting attacks by the other 4 leaders. He never lost it - which must have been hard - whereas Dion did not manage to lay any solid punches. "Taliban" Jack was perhaps the strongest opponent in the ring and he brawled incessantly but Harper seemed able to adroitly side-step his KO punches. Layton and Harper were the only ones who got cheap shots away at each other. Layton started early with his "are you hiding your platform under your sweater?" jab below the belt and 2 rounds later Harper almost got away with "I was the only the leader who didn't use private healthcare" head butt before Referee Pakin cautioned him. Yet the heavy slugging was clearly wearing Jack down by the final rounds - but he kept trying - hoping one of his flurries would earn him extra points. Duceppe's showed a shrewd move when outta nowhere he caught Harper off-guard with his "elitest culture and gala" hook, but Harper came back with "the Québécois nation resolution" that drew blood. Rookie May surprised everyone by occasionally punching above her weight and staying with a "rope-a-dope" strategy. Despite being water-girl for previous Liberal Heavyweights, May was concentrating on staying in the ring for her first pro fight and only tested harper with a few, opportunistic jabs. The clear winner after 12 rounds - Harper, but just by a TKO.
I was unable to tear myself away from the Canadian title match, but it semed Palin matched Biden toe-to-toe throughout the night. It ended very close to a draw with Biden just edging out Palin on style points. I hope to see the tapes later.
Wednesday, 17 September 2008
Is Sarah Palin a Feminist?
Camille Paglia - my long-time favourite feminist - correctly chastises Democrats for attempting to maliciously destroy their opponents like Palin. If democrats cease to stand for independent thought and speech, Paglia contends they will have committed political suicide.
What brought me to her was this discussion about Paglia's support for Plain's Pro-Life opinions under title "the uneasy conscience of feminism". Finally I believe I see the way clear on this debate.
Another thing I like about her is that she is practically Canadian - a "hockey mom" - how much more Canadian can you get! While Governor of Alaska she has been a proponent of getting a natural gas pipeline deal completed with TransCanada Pipelines - to the horror of the incumbents Exxon and Conoco who won/run the Valdez oil pipeline. This will a huge bonus for Alberta and makes alot of sense since it can hook up with the existing gas pipeline network.
Another thing is that Teck's Red Dog large lead-zinc mine (supplier of 5% of World Zinc concentrate) on the Bearing Straits, near Nome AK has been a model of "how to negotiate native land claim settlements". I recall learning all about them back in 1990 when I toured the state visiting mining operations in Nome, Anchorage, Fairbanks and Wrangell.
Wednesday, 10 September 2008
Stephane DION: Hypocrite One
Gunter further "pulls back the curtain" on the hypocrisy of many in the Green movement with the disclosure that during last years Suzuki Foundation cross country campaign, they didn't want to risk the cost of invalidating their vehicles warranty by burning "bio-diesel".
Gunter was also on the money with this article - Dion Ex Machina - the day before.
[Sept 20 - Stephen TAYLOR logs in with this question about CarbonZero new sticker on Hypocrite One. ]
Thursday, 4 September 2008
Pink Shift, Green Panther or Hidden Tiger, Crouching Dragon?
He must have been getting English lessons.
Friday, 29 August 2008
Is Senator Obama MLK2?
Today I heard Senator Obama's address to the Democratic National Caucus in acceptance of his parties Presidential Nomination. It was truly an impressive venue, and he is a great speaker. But I was not convinced that - despite his conviction - he has a plan any different from his Vice Presidential running-mate and reluctantly I do not accept him as the man to lead.
It is the 45th Anniversary of the famous "I had a Dream" speech of Dr. Martin Luther KING Jr. during a the "March on Washington for Jobs and Freedom" on August 28, 1963. May he rest in peace for he was a great man.
(Image courtesy http://wordle.net was composed from text of speech.)
Thursday, 28 August 2008
Thursday, 21 August 2008
Redux Ross Perot
What brought him out of active retirement was probably pronouncements of support for another Texan, T. Boone Pickens’ and his public proposals for wind-based energy policy. But no matter, from a different perspective here is ZDNet's take on Mr. Perot's recent activities.
To exert some influence over the upcoming US election is the most obvious, and who can dispute that US Federal Debt is now $9.4 trillion (versus $4 trillion when Perot railed against it in 1992) or that the US Federal Debt is now accumulating at the rate of $1 billion per day (and the FNMA/FMAC bailout have not yet been finalized!). I predict his next famous quote will be:Magna Charta: Welcome Back, Ross Perot by ZDNet's Tom Steinert-Threlkeld -- So, EDS is gone (again), subsumed by HP. But, lo and behold, H. Ross Perot is back, just in time for the presidential elections. Now, you can view his slides about the dangers of the federal deficit and debt online, any time you want. Or, hear him posit that the only silver lining [...]
It’s one thing to promise me free candy forever, but where are you going to get it?Also nothing beats Ross Perot reciting the Pioneers Creed:
The cowards never started, the weak died on the way and only the strong survived.Perot is correct when he says that Bush’s fiscal irresponsibility will handcuff the next president by limiting his options. On July 28, 2008 the WhiteHouse Office of Management and Budget stated that it had revised the budget deficit projected for fiscal year 2009 to a record $482 billion from only 6 months earlier.
p.s In order to comprehend these VERY LARGE numbers I refer you to this post - a "visual aid" to help my daughter understand the "Age of Earth". Make that last "square" a "cube" (by adding a third "100 cell" dimension - with each cell representing a 1 million cell cube) and THIS NEW SUPER-CUBE equals 1 Trillon! The U.S Federal Debt is therefore represented by almost 10 SUPER-CUBES. Sobering, n'est pas?


