Election Over - No Change

More of the same.

Unfortunately, the Conservatives could not mount an effective campaign against an ineffective opposition. It was a gift - and we blew it. Talk about snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

While there is was a small advantage gained in Conservative seats (+16) 1 leading to a minor victory in the house, there was significant changes to the players. Many old hands were ejected and new - stronger - blood transfused across all party spectra. With the firing of Liberal Leader Stephane DION likely, there will be another hiatus until the Liberals regroup. This will make the dynamics of governing quite interesting over the next 1-2 years.

I contend that Leaders Debate was critical to Harper's failure to define what "Conservatives Stood For" - he was constantly on the defensive and let LAYTON, DUCEPPE (and even DION) brand him as un-NDP, un-Quebecois/BQ and un-Liberal. That he could not mount a spirited defense was costly. Furthermore until the BQ is broken no party can successfully govern.

Nonetheless, I do not see that a Minority Conservative Government will actually harm anyone. "Less is More" is possibility the best prescription right now. Apparently everyone is expected to report for work ASAP. Throne speech before Remembrance Day and Xmas Recess on Dec 12.

Here were the results of the UBC Election Market.

UBC has been running the Election Market for at least a decade now - and I think has done an excellent job.

It is worth noting that Alberta voter turnout was the lowest ever at 52.9% (this is the percentage voted of Total Registered Voters - itself a fraction of total population.) Doubtless because of the large-scale Conservative landslide anticipated in the province, other party supporters (Liberals, NDP) did not bother to show. Preliminary2 national turn-out of 59.1% was also lower - as anticipated - than the 2004 Election (60.9%) and the uptick in 2006 (64.7%).

Indeed "voter apathy" was a problem in my own riding of Edmonton-Strathcona. However it was in the other direction. Voter turnout - a healthy 65.4% - was from the wrong side. It would appear that many disaffected and/or uninspired Liberals switched their votes to the ever-persistent NDP Candidate, Linda DUNCAN and too many "tethered conservatives" abstained on Election Day narrowly denying incumbent Conservative Rahim JAFFER a victory.




A final issue that has arisen in post-election chatter is the newly amended Elections Canada Act. Firstly, many have complained that the stringent "Voter ID" rules damaged access to the ballot boxes and in some situation were incorrectly enforced - leading to eligible voters being turned away. Still others found the delays due to incorrect voter names and address information unconscionable and that many were discouraged from voting as a result. Secondly, there has been speculation that the "Third Party Lobbying" rules could be broken when various Premiers rail against Federal Political Parties - as Ontario's Dalton McGINTY and Newfoundland's Premier Danny WILLIAMS did during the campaign. I can only hope that Elections Canada gags him. Of course, those issues should be weighted with the thoughts expressed by Brian KALT, that we are still better served than U.S voters.

[Addendum: Oct 16 National Post "Censored by Elections Canada" Editorial again brings up the staggered voter hours - that has been endlessly debated in the past - as a cause for concern. I disagree, it is a minor issue compared to the gag law and other election law issues as mentioned above. See also ABC News "Laws disenfranchised 1 million indigenious Canadians" which highlight the Voter ID issue, but overstates for a headline. ]

Footnotes:

1) 2008 Sept 10 Dissolution of 39th Parliament, the Consevatives held 127, Liberal 95, BQ 48, NDP 30 and Independents 4 (including 1 Green) - there were 4 Byelections pending that were expected to go to 1 Liberal, 1 BQ and 1 NDP (and 1 a tossup between Conservative/Liberals) .

2) www.elections.ca indicate voters of 13.833/23.401 million eligible.

[I note the uusual CPC candidate of Sharon SMITH in Skeena-Bulkey Valley, BC (ED#59025) who came in 2nd by 4,500 votes (7.5% of registered voters) - losing to NDP Nathan CULLEN. Sharon was the infamous "nude" ex-mayor of Houston BC.] (Storey here)