Tuesday 9 December 2008

Backward Contango?

This is the "Winter of our Discontent" and the wheels are coming off.

First this, The Manipulation of Gold Prices which was quickly followed by - Gold in Backwardation. Two thoughtful pieces which attempt to explain the whiplash inducing behaviour of Gold prices over past few weeks in the context of Central Bank "expectations management" and a CFTC "Collusion Conspiracy".

Then, Treasury Sells $30 Billion of Four-Week Bills at Zero Percent - 13:48ET and, Treasury Bills Trade at Negative Rates as Haven Demand Surges - 14:03ET

The Stock Markets tank. Never did I ever, ever believe I would see U.S Tbills trade at zero yield! This is historic - Gravity has been repealed!

"The Treasury Department will sell $28 billion of three-year notes tomorrow (Current BM YTM 1.12% dn 0.103) and $16 billion of 10-year notes (Current BM YTM 2.65% dn 0.089) on Thursday." (As noted in Accross the Curve I can't understand why the Treasury didn't hit every one of the $126bn in bids - I mean why hold back? Are you serious or just pretending. Also that bidders only got 82% "fill" of their "zero" bid is confounding - who took the other 18%?)

We live in strange times! Everyone wants to sanitize their YE Accounts is reason given, but it may just be the wall of Treasury bills flooding Wall Street with no where else to go. No lending is taking place anyways. It's a Government take-over of lending AND borrowing.


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