Thursday 18 September 2008

Russia market meltdown due to... KGB?

Diane Francis notes that the shutdown of the Russian Stock market has more to do with the Vlad (the impaler) PUTIN's nostalgia for the "good ole days" - than Lehman Bros & Wamu's financial meltdowns.

This flags the result of a "financial market referendum" on the Georgian Invasion - among other things. Military support provided to Hugo CHAVEZ in Venezuela. Declaration of aggressive boundary disputes in the Arctic - which will challenge Canadian Sovereignty. Continued agitation in Ukraine Parliament which just disolved and distribution of Russian "passports" to large native russians in Sebastopol - the Black Sea port city and home to Russian Fleet. Russia similarly distributed passports in South Ossetia in order to provide it with a justification for the invasion in August.

Francis also writes "Moscow actually thinks it's a super power, but economically size-wise it's about as important as Alberta, or Norway. It's a tiny economy with an attitude and lots of oil and nobody will help the Ruskies."

That is only partially true. At the time the wall fell in 1991 Russian oil production was struggling at 5-6 mb/d. It is now (2008) at 13.5 mb/d and domestic demand is at most 4.5 mb/d. That leaves excess supply of almost 9 mb/d or 3-4 times Alberta (3.5 mb/d) or Norway(2.5 mb/d). That said, it would not generate enough cash to run a Superpower of the size Putin clearly intends to resemble.





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